Our initial look divided the states into two groups: those that have expanded Medicaid under ACA and those that have not. Many of the newly insured in 2014 were new Medicaid enrollees, so if the 2014 increase in job growth were due to expanded coverage, one would expect to see a larger effect in the Medicaid-expanding states. Comparing two periods, April–October 2014 versus the previous 12 months, in Figure 1, we observe that job growth actually accelerated more in the nonexpanding states (104% increase) than in the expanding states (46% increase).[2],[3]
Based on this comparison of the two groups of states, Medicaid expansion does not appear to explain the acceleration in health sector job growth that began around the second quarter of 2014.
The Health Policy Skeptic 