July 25, 2017
the San Francisco Fed is out with a report on this issue of falling US business formation. It finds that in recent decades “the number of businesses in the United States has moved much more closely with workforce size” and that “[increasing] the labor supply and hence the supply of potential entrepreneurs can stimulate business formation by increasing demand without raising costs.”
Source: Explaining the decline in US entrepreneurship • AEI | Pethokoukis Blog » AEIdeas
Editor’s note: the CBO estimated that the ACA would reduce the size of the workforce by ~2 million workers; this SF Fed report would imply that would have an adverse effect on business formation.
July 20, 2017
Although plans to repeal the ACA and restructure Medicaid financing are struggling to gain ground in the Senate, it remains likely that states across the country will see changes to their Medicaid programs in the years to come. State policymakers will continue to propose plans for reining in spending and tightening eligibility, such as premiums and work requirements, and these types of reforms are likely to win federal approval under the Trump Administration.This webinar will offer a primer for understanding potential changes to Medicaid as well as story ideas for reporters across the country.
Source: NIHCM – Medicaid Undone? Covering the Safety Net’s New Future
July 19, 2017
The Concentration of U.S. Health Care Spending
Source: NIHCM – The Concentration of U.S. Health Care Spending
June 28, 2017
The goal of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) was to achieve nearly universal health insurance coverage through a combination of mandates, subsidies, marketplaces, and Medicaid expansions, most of which took effect in 2014. We use data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to examine the impacts of the ACA on health care access, risky health behaviors, and self-assessed health after two years. We estimate difference-in-difference-in-differences models that exploit variation in treatment intensity from state participation in the Medicaid expansion and pre-ACA uninsured rates. Results suggest that the ACA led to sizeable improvements in access to health care in both Medicaid expansion and non-expansion states, with the gains being larger in expansion states along some dimensions. No statistically significant effects on risky behaviors or self-assessed health emerge for the full sample. However, we find some evidence that the ACA improved self-assessed health among older non-elderly adults, particularly in expansion states.
Source: Early Effects of the Affordable Care Act on Health Care Access, Risky Health Behaviors, and Self-Assessed Health
June 24, 2017
This paper exploits the State Children’s Health Insurance Program of the United States to investigate impact of a publicly funded health insurance benefit for children on work behavior of adult men and women. Drawing data from the Annual Social and Economic Supplement of the Current Population Survey and employing a triple- difference identification strategy, I find that public health insurance benefit for children decreases labor supply of women but increases that of men. Estimates suggest that, on average, labor force participation rate of women decreased by 7.4 percentage points while that of men increased by 5.5 percentage points as their families became eligible for State Children’s Health Insurance Program. The findings are supported by a number of robustness checks and a falsification exercise.
Source: Impact of Children’s Health Insurance Bene fit on Labor Supply: Evidence from Newly Arrived Immigrants in the United States by Keshar M. Ghimire :: SSRN
June 24, 2017
A large literature following Ruhm (2000) suggests that mortality falls during recessions and rises during booms. The panel-data approach used to generate these results assumes that either there is no substantial migration response to temporary changes in local economic conditions, or that any such response is accurately captured by intercensal population estimates. To assess the importance of these assumptions, we examine two natural experiments: the recession in cotton textile-producing districts of Britain during the U.S. Civil War, and the coal boom in Appalachian counties of the U.S. that followed the OPEC oil embargo in the 1970s. In both settings, we find evidence of a substantial migratory response. Moreover, we show that estimates of the relationship between business cycles and mortality are highly sensitive to assumptions related to migration. After adjusting for migration, we find that mortality increased during the cotton recession, but was largely unaffected by the coal boom. Overall, our results suggest that migration can meaningfully bias estimates of the impact of business-cycle fluctuations on mortality.
Source: Estimating the Recession-Mortality Relationship When Migration Matters by Vellore Arthi, Brian Beach, William Walker Hanlon :: SSRN
June 24, 2017
This study uses longitudinal data and four different measures of mental health to tease out the impact of psychiatric disorder onsets and recoveries on employment outcomes. Results suggest that developing a mental health problem leads to a significant increase in the probability of transitioning to non-employment, while a recovery increases the probability of return to work among the not employed with a mental health problem. No consistent effect was found on hours worked and earnings. Research and policy attention is needed with respect to early interventions such as job retention programmes to help workers with mental health problems remain employed as well as interventions that may lead to recovery and return to work. More research is needed especially with data and models that can differentiate between the effects of mental health onsets and recoveries on employment exit and return to work transitions.
Source: The Impact of Recent Mental Health Changes on Employment: New Evidence from Longitudinal Data by Sophie Mitra, Kristine Jones :: SSRN