The Effects of Medicaid Expansion on Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Border Counties by Lizhong Peng, Xiaohui Guo, Chad D. Meyerhoefer :: SSRN

October 19, 2018

This paper provides new empirical evidence on the employment and earning effects of the recent Medicaid expansion. Unlike most existing studies that use a conventional state and year fixed effects approach, our main identification strategy is based on the comparison of employment and wages in contiguous county-pairs in neighboring states (i.e. border counties) with different Medicaid expansion status. Using the 2008-2016 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, we estimate a set of distributed lag models in order to examine the dynamic effects of Medicaid expansion. Results from our preferred specification suggest a small but statistically significant decrease in employment of 1.3 percent one year after the Medicaid expansion. This disemployment effect is transitory and appears to primarily occur in low-wage sectors. In particular, employment returns to pre-expansion levels within two years. We also do not find any statistically significant effect of the Medicaid expansion on wages at any point.

via The Effects of Medicaid Expansion on Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Border Counties by Lizhong Peng, Xiaohui Guo, Chad D. Meyerhoefer :: SSRN


The New Wave of Local Minimum Wage Policies: Evidence From Six Cities by Sylvia Allegretto, Anna Godøy, Carl Nadler, Michael Reich :: SSRN

October 17, 2018

In recent years, a new wave of state and local activity has transformed minimum wage policy in the U.S. As of August 2018, ten large cities and seven states have enacted minimum wage policies in the $12 to $15 range.1 Dozens of smaller cities and counties have also enacted wage standards in this range.2 These higher minimum wages, which are being phased in gradually, will cover well over 20 percent of the U.S. workforce. With a substantial number of additional cities and states poised to soon enact similar policies, a large portion of the U.S. labor market will be held to a higher wage standard than has been typical over the past 50 years.

These minimum wage levels substantially exceed the previous peak in the federal minimum wage, which reached just under $10 (in today’s dollars) in the late 1960s. As a result, the new policies will increase pay directly for 15 to 30 percent of the workforce in these cities and as much as 40 to 50 percent of the workforce in some industries and regions. By contrast, the federal and state minimum wage increases between 1984 and 2014 increased pay directly for less than eight percent of the applicable workforce.

This report examines the effects of these new policies. Although minimum wage effects on employment have been much studied and debated, this new wave of higher minimum wages attains levels beyond the evidential reach of most previous studies. Moreover, city-level policies might have effects that differ from those of state and federal policies. Yet, most of the empirical studies of minimum wages focus on the state and federal-level policies. The literature on the effects of city-level minimum wages is much smaller. Our report helps fill these gaps.

via The New Wave of Local Minimum Wage Policies: Evidence From Six Cities by Sylvia Allegretto, Anna Godøy, Carl Nadler, Michael Reich :: SSRN


Medicaid and the Labor Supply of Single Mothers: Implications for Health Care Reform by R. Vincent Pohl :: SSRN

September 16, 2018

The Medicaid expansions and health insurance subsidies of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) change work incentives for single mothers. To evaluate the employment effects of these policies ex ante, I estimate a model of labor supply and health insurance choice exploiting variation in pre‐ACA Medicaid policies. Simulations show that single mothers increase their labor supply at the extensive and intensive margin by 12% and 7%, respectively, uninsurance rates decline by up to 40%, and an average family’s welfare improves by 1,600 dollars per year. Health insurance subsidies and not Medicaid expansions mostly drive these effects.

via Medicaid and the Labor Supply of Single Mothers: Implications for Health Care Reform by R. Vincent Pohl :: SSRN


Labor Market Effects of the Affordable Care Act: Evidence from a Tax Notch

May 13, 2018

We investigate whether taxpayers respond to a large, ACA-induced upward tax notch at the Federal Poverty Level. Using administrative tax data, we document bunching in the income distribution and provide estimates of the taxable income elasticity. Our estimates are the only ones using US data that are identified by panel variation in budget constraints rather than functional form assumptions (Blomquist and Newey 2017), a feature of our novel longitudinal estimator. Consistent with Saez (2010), we find bunching only among the self-employed. Analysis of linked tax and survey data suggests that bunching is likely not representative of changes in labor supply.

via Labor Market Effects of the Affordable Care Act: Evidence from a Tax Notch by Kavan Kucko, Kevin Rinz, Benjamin Solow :: SSRN


Minimum Wage Analysis Using a Pre-Committed Research Design: Evidence Through 2016

May 5, 2018

This paper presents results from the first year of a multi-year, pre-committed research design for analyzing recent state-level minimum wage changes. Through 2015 and 2016, we estimate that relatively large statutory minimum wage increases have reduced employment among low-skilled population groups by just under 1.5 percentage points. Our estimates of the effects of smaller minimum wage increases are more variable and include both moderately large positive values and modest negative values.Our estimates of the effects of increases linked to inflation-indexing provisions are also quite variable, taking a small positive value on average across specifications. Results including 2016 diverge nontrivially when we compare estimates using the American Community Survey (ACS) to estimates using the Current Population Survey (CPS), with estimates tending to be more negative in the ACS. Analysis of future data will be needed to determine whether this difference across surveys is most appropriately attributed to sampling variations or to some other cause.

via Minimum Wage Analysis Using a Pre-Committed Research Design: Evidence Through 2016 by Jeffrey P. Clemens, Michael Strain :: SSRN


Does Government Health Insurance Reduce Job Lock and Job Push?

February 14, 2018

I study job lock and job push, the twin phenomena believed to be caused by employment-contingent health insurance (ECHI). Using variation in Medicaid eligibility among household members of male workers as a proxy for shifts in workers’ dependence on employment for health insurance, I estimate large job lock and job push effects. For married workers, Medicaid eligibility for one household member results in an increase in the likelihood of a voluntary job exit over a four-month period by approximately 34%. For job push, the transition rate into jobs with ECHI among all workers falls on average by 26%.

via Does Government Health Insurance Reduce Job Lock and Job Push? by Scott Barkowski :: SSRN


The Effect of Health Insurance on Crime Evidence from the Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansion

January 13, 2018

Little evidence exists on the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on criminal behavior, a gap in the literature that this paper seeks to address. Using a one period static model of criminal behavior, I argue we should anticipate a decrease in time devoted to criminal activities in response to the expansion, since the availability of public health insurance not only has a pure negative income effect on crime but also raises the opportunity cost of crime. This prediction is particularly relevant for the ACA expansion, because it primarily affects childless adults, the population that is most likely to engage in criminal behavior. I validate this forecast using a difference-in-differences approach, estimating the expansion’s effects on a panel dataset of state- and county-level crime rates. My point estimates show that the ACA Medicaid expansion is negatively related to burglary, motor vehicle theft, criminal homicide, robbery, and aggravated assault. The value of this Medicaid expansion induced reduction in crime to expansion states is almost $10 billion per year.

via The Effect of Health Insurance on Crime Evidence from the Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansion by Qiwei He :: SSRN