Labor Market Effects of the Affordable Care Act: Evidence from a Tax Notch

May 13, 2018

We investigate whether taxpayers respond to a large, ACA-induced upward tax notch at the Federal Poverty Level. Using administrative tax data, we document bunching in the income distribution and provide estimates of the taxable income elasticity. Our estimates are the only ones using US data that are identified by panel variation in budget constraints rather than functional form assumptions (Blomquist and Newey 2017), a feature of our novel longitudinal estimator. Consistent with Saez (2010), we find bunching only among the self-employed. Analysis of linked tax and survey data suggests that bunching is likely not representative of changes in labor supply.

via Labor Market Effects of the Affordable Care Act: Evidence from a Tax Notch by Kavan Kucko, Kevin Rinz, Benjamin Solow :: SSRN


Minimum Wage Analysis Using a Pre-Committed Research Design: Evidence Through 2016

May 5, 2018

This paper presents results from the first year of a multi-year, pre-committed research design for analyzing recent state-level minimum wage changes. Through 2015 and 2016, we estimate that relatively large statutory minimum wage increases have reduced employment among low-skilled population groups by just under 1.5 percentage points. Our estimates of the effects of smaller minimum wage increases are more variable and include both moderately large positive values and modest negative values.Our estimates of the effects of increases linked to inflation-indexing provisions are also quite variable, taking a small positive value on average across specifications. Results including 2016 diverge nontrivially when we compare estimates using the American Community Survey (ACS) to estimates using the Current Population Survey (CPS), with estimates tending to be more negative in the ACS. Analysis of future data will be needed to determine whether this difference across surveys is most appropriately attributed to sampling variations or to some other cause.

via Minimum Wage Analysis Using a Pre-Committed Research Design: Evidence Through 2016 by Jeffrey P. Clemens, Michael Strain :: SSRN


Does Government Health Insurance Reduce Job Lock and Job Push?

February 14, 2018

I study job lock and job push, the twin phenomena believed to be caused by employment-contingent health insurance (ECHI). Using variation in Medicaid eligibility among household members of male workers as a proxy for shifts in workers’ dependence on employment for health insurance, I estimate large job lock and job push effects. For married workers, Medicaid eligibility for one household member results in an increase in the likelihood of a voluntary job exit over a four-month period by approximately 34%. For job push, the transition rate into jobs with ECHI among all workers falls on average by 26%.

via Does Government Health Insurance Reduce Job Lock and Job Push? by Scott Barkowski :: SSRN


The Effect of Health Insurance on Crime Evidence from the Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansion

January 13, 2018

Little evidence exists on the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on criminal behavior, a gap in the literature that this paper seeks to address. Using a one period static model of criminal behavior, I argue we should anticipate a decrease in time devoted to criminal activities in response to the expansion, since the availability of public health insurance not only has a pure negative income effect on crime but also raises the opportunity cost of crime. This prediction is particularly relevant for the ACA expansion, because it primarily affects childless adults, the population that is most likely to engage in criminal behavior. I validate this forecast using a difference-in-differences approach, estimating the expansion’s effects on a panel dataset of state- and county-level crime rates. My point estimates show that the ACA Medicaid expansion is negatively related to burglary, motor vehicle theft, criminal homicide, robbery, and aggravated assault. The value of this Medicaid expansion induced reduction in crime to expansion states is almost $10 billion per year.

via The Effect of Health Insurance on Crime Evidence from the Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansion by Qiwei He :: SSRN


It’s About Time: Effects of the Affordable Care Act Dependent Coverage Mandate on Time Use

January 10, 2018

We examine how the Affordable Care Act’s dependent coverage mandate (DCM) affected young adults’ time allocation. Exploiting more accurate measures from the American Time Use Surveys, we find that the DCM reduced labor supply. The question then arises, what have these adults done with the extra time? Estimates suggest a reduction in job‐lock, as well as in the duration of the average doctor’s visit, including time spent waiting and receiving care. The latter effect is consistent with substitution from emergency‐department utilization toward more routine care. Estimates suggest that the extra time has gone into socializing, and into educational and job‐search activities.

via It’s About Time: Effects of the Affordable Care Act Dependent Coverage Mandate on Time Use by Greg Colman, Dhaval Dave :: SSRN


Employment Status and Health Characteristics of Adults With Expanded Medicaid Coverage in Michigan

December 14, 2017

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) expanded Medicaid coverage to approximately 11 million working-age adults. Critics have raised concerns about providing Medicaid to adults capable of working. Several states have proposed work requirements in Section 1115 Medicaid waivers.1,2 Although none were approved during the Obama administration, the Trump administration is willing to consider such provisions.3 Prior analyses4 estimated that half of adults eligible for ACA Medicaid expansion were employed, and 62% of nondisabled adults were working or in school. Although these national estimates of Medicaid-eligible individuals are valuable, less is known about the employment experience of actual enrollees in Medicaid expansion states and which health characteristics may keep them from working. Complementary state-level analyses are needed as individual states consider whether to propose work requirements. This study examined the demographic and health characteristics associated with the employment status of current Medicaid expansion enrollees in Michigan, which expanded Medicaid under a Section 1115 waiver to nonelderly adults with incomes at or below 133% of the federal poverty level who do not otherwise qualify for Medicaid or Medicare based on disability or other criteria.

via Characteristics of Adults With Expanded Medicaid Coverage in Michigan | Health Care Reform | JAMA Internal Medicine | The JAMA Network


It’s About Time: Effects of the Affordable Care Act Dependent Coverage Mandate on Time Use

December 8, 2017

We examine how the Affordable Care Act’s dependent coverage mandate (DCM) affected young adults’ time allocation. Exploiting more accurate measures from the American Time Use Surveys, we find that the DCM reduced labor supply. The question then arises, what have these adults done with the extra time? Estimates suggest a reduction in job‐lock, as well as in the duration of the average doctor’s visit, including time spent waiting and receiving care. The latter effect is consistent with substitution from emergency‐department utilization toward more routine care. Estimates suggest that the extra time has gone into socializing, and into educational and job‐search activities.

via It’s About Time: Effects of the Affordable Care Act Dependent Coverage Mandate on Time Use by Greg Colman, Dhaval Dave :: SSRN