It is clear that if our initial assumptions are accurate, U.S. policy makers would be making a grave error in failing to fund deterrence in Europe. The next logical question then is: what should American taxpayers be willing to spend on European security? In order to reduce the annual odds of war from 1.2 percent to .4 percent, America would break even at about $30 billion per year spent on deterrence in Europe.
If we take into account only the cost of basing troops in Europe and conducting exercises there, Americans spend much less than this figure. With our estimate of $6.5 billion per year, the case for investing in deterrence is compelling.