Is Obamacare enrollment stalling?
That’s the suggestion of a recent New York Times article that basically looks at the enrollment differences between the Affordable Care Act’s state and federal exchanges. Many states that had good enrollment for the 2014 season saw little increase in 2015. The federal exchanges did better — but that might just be catch-up as they enroll folks they would have picked up earlier had the exchanges not melted down.
If this true, Bob Laszewski argues that it will have pretty serious implications for the long-term health of the exchanges. Remember, the prices we’re seeing right now don’t necessarily reflect what the price will be over the long term, because there are all sorts of temporary cross-subsidies that will expire at the end of 2016. The future path of prices will depend on a lot of things, but one very important factor is the size of the insurance pool.