In 2017, we estimate that the number of uninsured Americans may increase by nearly 20 percent, undoing the gains of the previous two years. In subsequent years, that number may continue to grow—some years by 1 percent, other years by a bit more. Within a decade, some 40 million Americans will once again lack health insurance.
Although our study does not calculate the demographic breakdown of the uninsured, it is reasonable to conclude that African-Americans and Hispanics will be hit the hardest by the Affordable Care Act’s failure to extend insurance coverage. Both groups historically have higher uninsured rates than the wider populace. A June Gallup Poll found that 17.6 percent of African-Americans and 37 percent of Hispanics were, at that time, uninsured. As health care costs continue to rise, they will likely be disproportionately affected and pushed out of the health insurance market.